The New Kid's Rating
The idea: start from a sensible guess and let evidence move you in proportion to how much of it there is.
Read it
Who is in this book
- Sol Ask what a small amount of evidence really tells you, which is something but not everything from PriorForge
- Bayard A fair average blends the starting guess with the real votes, weighted by how many of each from PriorForge
- Priya Before any evidence, you already have a starting guess, and it should be a sensible middle from PriorForge
- Danya a child of the Green Asks "how do we know?"
- Dunna The starting guess counts as a block of pretend votes, and you can count how many real votes it takes to move it from PriorForge
- Vera Only volume overcomes a starting guess; a loud few should not from PriorForge
- Tara a child of the Green Listens longest, speaks last
Every recurring character has a short tune, so you can tell who is on stage before a word is said. The tunes play only when you tap, and the Reading Access sound switch turns them off.
The Honest Page
Which parts of this story are true, stretched or made up?
True
- With a prior of 5.5 held as 10 pretend votes, two votes of 10 blend to 6.25; sixty votes averaging 8.1 blend to about 7.73; a third vote of 2 moves the first game only to about 5.92, while its plain average falls to about 7.33; thirty votes averaging 9 blend to 8.125.
- A Bayesian average combines a prior value with the observed data, weighting each by how much information it carries; it is useful when there are only a few ratings, and some rating sites use it to stop a handful of scores topping a list. Source
Stretched
- The case uses a prior of exactly 5.5 held as exactly 10 votes. What we simplified: Real sites choose these numbers and often do not publish them. A bigger pretend block makes new games slower to rise; a smaller one lets a few votes move them more.
Made up
- The club, Ellis, Harbour Lights, Ms. Varga, the rating site and every vote in the case are made up.
Tara’s sentence
The case stops where Tara speaks. Write the sentence you would have said. It stays on this device.
Kept.
Your sentence lives on this device. Nothing is sent anywhere.
Ring the hammer for someone
Pick this book for someone younger. The link carries only the book, and it will wait for them on the Green.